The last earnings released last October saw Netflix gap up nicely. We were hovering around $700 and it gapped up about 40 odd points to open up at +$740 and since then has kept going up higher. What has the organization been up to other than losing and adding new subscribers after the huge password sharing crackdown a few periods ago? 

A few things during this past earnings period stand out:

• Special Christmas Day NFL games were obviously well received. Football and holidays 
  Squid Game Season 1 appears to be catching on with subscribers in addition to new Pro Wrestling events.
• The lower-tier membership options with annoying Ad appears to still be going and those users constantly monitoring their subscription bills have tired down while keeping the service so retention appears to be positive

Analysts are expecting $10.1 billion in revenue, $2.2 billion in operating income and $4.20 in EPS, for expected year-over-year growth of 15%, 48% and 99% respectively.

The 2025 guidance is likely going to draw a lot of interest and it is being drawn up as $43.67 billion in revenue and EPS of $23.85 for expected full-year 2025 growth of 12% and 21% respectively. Compared to 2024 numbers ideally that would be considered a slowdown. Current March ’25 quarterly estimates are expecting 12% revenue growth, 18% operating income and 10% EPS growth.

Technically, that gap fill in the lower to mid-700's is a distinct possibility if sentiment drops following the earnings and guidance. There is technical support at 812 which we held nicely above in the most recent pullback from its all-time highs. If the post earnings drop takes us below 776, expect that lower-to-mid 700's gap fill to be imminent leading into the weeks trading. Additionally, if the initial week of the new Trump administration leads to trader hesitation especially following the expected barrage of Executive Orders with unforeseen results, we may find room for that gap fill really quickly.

Chart (NFLX)